Snowstorms, Snowshoes and Anecdotal Evidence

Becky, snowshoe racing in Wisconsin.
Note the hat: it's Packer spirit wear;
she'll be cheering Greenbay during
Sunday's Superbowl.

Well, it’s here — the Snowstorm of the Century has hit Chicago. I’m not quite sure how significant that is in a century that’s only 11 years old, but we’ve definitely got accumulation, with some serious shoveling and treacherous driving conditions. My kids are thrilled to have a snow day — the first in our school district in decades.

Chicago averages about 38 inches of snow a year, but for three years running we’ve topped the 50-inch mark and it looks like we’re well on our way to a fourth. Lucky for me, I thought to bring my snowshoes home from our last visit to our farm house up in Wisconsin, where we have plenty of room to practice snowshoeing.

Recently, our family has taken up snowshoe racing on during weekends up north. Snowshoes were developed in Central Asia around 6,000 years ago, but they’re still pretty new to us. We’ve been having a lot of fun. In a race a couple of weeks ago, out of a field of 140, Jay came in first overall; Becky, Jackson and Doug also medaled. I managed to finish … without falling.

Statistically, of course, the results of a single race aren’t that important, except for bragging rights around the dinner table. Four years of above average snowfall don’t really mean much statistically, either. In our industry, these results would be called anecdotes.

There are a couple of famous quotes that make the rounds about anecdotal evidence. The first is attributed to Raymond Wolfinger, professor emeritus of American Politics at the University of California, Berkeley. In response to a student’s dismissal of a simple factual statement as a “mere anecdote”, Wolfinger responded: “The plural of anecdote is data.” In the second, the quote has been bastardized and more often represented as “The plural of anecdote is not data.”

But Wolfinger was right. Anecdotes are stories. Data collection is meaningless unless you understand the story it represents. As quantitative specialists, you are the interpreters of data — you tell the stories so the data make sense to your audience. That’s your job. Here at Burtch Works, we want to help you make sense of the marketplace. That’s our job. Please let us know if we can help.

Having the Data is Not Enough

For people in our industry, numbers have a life of their own. We get excited when data show us new trends, patterns and possibilities. But most of the world does not view this information in the same way. In fact, believe it or not, most people think of statistical data as dry, unfathomable, even boring.

This presents quantitative experts with great opportunity. You are the bridge between the dense forest of information on one side and hungry consumers on the other. The better you are at translating raw data into interesting, usable, vital information, the more valuable you will be in the marketplace.

This four-minute video was part of a BBC documentary on The Joy of Stats. In it, Swedish academic "superstar" Hans Rosling (the man who said "I kid you not, statistics is now the sexiest subject on the planet"), shows his enthusiasm for bringing statistics to life. As he says: "Having the data is not enough. I have to show it in ways that people both enjoy and understand."

Now, maybe you'll never have a media team at your disposal that can help you pull off the production values of the BBC, but you can use Rosling's enthusiasm as inspiration. Everything you do to improve your communication skills and hone your ability to translate dry statistics into accessible information will add value to your resume.

The Art of Building Relationships

It’s been a remarkable year at Burtch Works. Sometimes it’s hard for me to believe it has been just a little over a year that we’ve been together in this new, flexible practice. Working nationwide, we have strengthened our many long-standing relationships and established some new ones. Here among the staff, we have welcomed a few new faces and welcomed back some long-time friends and colleagues. The depth and breadth of experience represented is second to none, and we continue to grow and build our relationships.

I strongly believe that these relationships are what set Burtch Works apart. Making a placement — finding the right candidate for the right client — that’s what we do. But building relationships is who we are, and our relationships allow us to do what we do better than anyone else.

For our candidates, building a long-term relationship means that we get to know who you really are — not just for a single interview for a particular job, but across the course of your career. As you grow, as your personal life changes, as you look toward your future, we can help you map out strategic moves, develop your professional network and create long-term business relationships that will allow you to manage your career to fit the needs of your life at every stage along the way. We want to know your hopes and dreams, not just your salary requirements and technical experience (although we want to know those, too).

For our clients, building a long-term relationship means we can help you hire the best and brightest quantitative professionals — the people you need to navigate the ever-widening river of data. As far back as 1943, Winston Churchill observed that the empires of the future would be empires of the mind. That future is now, and the battle for talent is fierce. We have the experience and resources to help you win that battle.

In less than a month, we will ring in the New Year, and we’re excited to be celebrating with you. Let us hear from you about your plans — big and small — for next month, next year and into the next decade. And warmest wishes to you and your family for a bright and happy holiday season.

Compensation Update 2010

Compensation for Quantitative Professionals:
What to Expect in the Near Term

The last two years have seen the job market for quantitative professionals bungee from robust down to the weakest level in 70 years and, just recently, back to relative health. Now that things are getting back on track, at least for our industry, the topic on the minds of clients and candidates alike is compensation.

Author Robert Heinlein once wrote: “There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe” While it’s good to know where you stand in the current market, it’s just as important to stay abreast of the outlook for more senior level positions to plan your career path. Here are some observations and guidelines about the patterns we are seeing in this new economic cycle:

Vice President/Director
$150,000 to $250,000

Within corporations, a director or VP typically manages multiple layers with upwards of 20 staffers. At this level, it is important to have well-honed leadership skills and to provide strategic vision. In consulting firms, the ability to develop new business becomes important at this level and will usually require heavy travel.

Manager
$120,000 to $170,000

This level usually offers the first significant opportunity to develop managerial skills. A solidly performing senior analyst who demonstrates mentoring and leadership abilities, in addition to business acumen and initiative, could be promoted into this role. It is highly unusual for a senior analyst to change companies and move up to manager level simultaneously, as most firms prefer to hire people with demonstrated management experience or to promote from within.

Senior Analytical Specialist
$80,000 to $180,000

As data-driven decision making becomes ubiquitous in business, statisticians as individual contributors have been able to command greater salaries. This is especially true if their programming skills (SAS or R) are well honed and their statistical know-how is exceptional. There are many technology based firms that are driving these salaries up. It is important to take on direct reports and/or business development responsibilities to ensure career advancement.

Senior Analyst/Analyst
$65,000 to $90,000

Even in this recovering market, there is strong demand for quantitative specialists with one-to-five years’ experience. The stronger the candidate’s background with software like SAS or R, and the larger the datasets, the more sought after the analyst will be. Now is the time to develop your communication skills, as every employer expects their analysts — especially senior analysts — to be able to deliver quantitative information to a nontechnical audience. Candidates at this level are now receiving multiple offers if they are conducting an active job search.

Entry-level Masters
$55,000 to $70,000

As the market strengthens and companies struggle to find candidates with one-to-two years’ experience, the entry-level market for quants will continue to improve. It has been a gloomy couple of years, but we are now seeing signs that the new grads of December 2010 and June 2011 will be a hot commodity.

Let us know if we can help you figure out how best to prepare for the next move in your statistical universe. I welcome your questions and comments — please join in an on-line salary discussion and share your experiences here.

Happy Anniversary!

This week we celebrated the first anniversary of Burtch Works — one year of working together, but many years of combined expertise as executive recruiters for the quantitative and market research disciplines. By most standards, starting a new enterprise in the middle of a recession would seem like a shaky idea, but I believed then and still believe that we are in the right place at the right time. It’s the right place because we serve an industry that holds the bold promise of growth and stability for the foreseeable future. It’s the right time because we are poised to help our candidates and clients negotiate a new and changing environment as we move forward through economic recovery.

One year ago I talked about Burtch Works being my own personal vision. It’s been a joy to see my vision transform into a reality. Thank you to all the people at Burtch Works who have shared that vision and helped shape it into a living, working enterprise. And thank you to all of you for your feedback and support. We’re looking forward to year two!

Stepping Out of the Box

Mongolia, August 2010

Ger Tents in the Gobi

It turns out that when you travel somewhere exotic and foreign,you’ll discover that things are, well, exotic and foreign. During our family summer adventure in Mongolia, we experienced the full yin and yang of foreign and exotic — from fantastic to absurd, from interesting to alien, from simple to simply awful. At 6,100 some miles from home, we took a giant step out of our box.

Me, contemplating the US economy
in the Gobi Dessert

Stepping out of your box is an eye-opening experience. You learn to appreciate the little things, like plumbing and roads. Potholes don’t seem so bad when you’re in a country where, outside of the capital city Ulaan Baatar, roads are a rarity, and the natives and guides tend to regard even rudimentary paths as optional. Bring extra Dramamine.

Becky and me, freezing at our
campsite in Lake Khovsgol,
northern Mongolia

We found that you must expect the unexpected, like a hailstorm with freezing rain while horseback riding; or a fierce sandstorm that keeps you grounded in your ger tent. You discover hidden talents you didn’t know you had, like the ability to communicate in a country where few people speak English. And you come to understand that even in the most unfamiliar environment, there are universal joys, like playing cards or chess late into the night around a campfire, where the common language does not have to be a spoken one.

Jay (l.) and Jackson (r.) enjoying a game of chess
Lake Khovsgol, northern Mongolia

Mongolia is going through a momentous cultural shift. Having emerged from communism a short 20 years ago, it is struggling with growing pains as it embraces democracy and capitalism. Ulaan Baatar moves at a frenetic pace, constructing modern offices and condo high rises, while more than half the population clings to the centuries-old nomadic lifestyle. Urban teens flock to internet spots with their gadget-laden Asian cell phones, while older generations continue to herd sheep, goats and cattle, moving three times a year in search of better grazing. It will be interesting to see what Mongolia is like in another 20 years.

Tourism is booming (we encountered an amazing number of Americans) as Mongolia’s reputation for unspoiled wilderness spreads. Foreign investors are also descending in a quest for mining rights over recently discovered rich deposits of gold and copper. It is estimated Mongolia’s GDP could triple over the next 10 years. Let’s hope the government is up for the challenge of managing these opportunities – protecting their country’s breathtaking landscape from the potentially negative impact that both tourism and mining could have.

Doug and a feathered friend in western Mongolia

Camping is not really my thing, but Doug and the kids had a blast, reveling in the outdoors — horseback riding, kayaking and hiking under vast blue skies with the whitest clouds I’ve ever seen. We were totally unplugged, as “no signal” seems to be understood in any language. And that was the best part, being together, uninterrupted by the routine of daily life — experiencing as a family the highs and lows of foreign and exotic.

Jay on the famous
Flaming Cliffs
Gobi Dessert, Mongolia

It occurs to me that stepping out of your box is good preparation for the inevitable changes we face in our lives and careers. Starting a new job often means expecting the unexpected, breaking into a different corporate culture, and learning the language of a new company. It also brings exciting opportunities for personal and professional growth, not to mention a keen appreciation for welcoming coworkers, a decent lunch and good old American plumbing. Chances are you won’t even have to bring your own toilet paper (although I’m glad I did).

We found that a good guide makes all the difference. If you need guidance along your career path, Burtch Works is here for you. (See more pictures below.)

The family (that's a reindeer in the middle)
What do you thing of this as our holiday card?
Lake Khovsgol, Mongolia

In the Gobi Dessert

Lake Khovsgol, Mongolia

Ger tents — sans plumbing

Western Mongolia

Beer — the universal language!

In Beijing on our way home.

That's the "Birds Nest" from the 2008 Summer Olympics