Quantitative Job Trends 2008 5-6-08

Recession Talk Exaggerated re Analytical Job Market

While talk of recession continues to dominate headlines, with the fresh job market data issued in May, we question whether there is a recession at all. Overall, the economy lost 20,000 jobs in April, significantly fewer than economists had predicted. Furthermore, April saw substantial growth in professional hiring, adding 39,000 new jobs. All this information supports the healthy activity we are experiencing.

Despite some doomsday predictions, current data indicates that we may have passed the period of greatest risk and could even be on the road to another robust hiring phase. For example, Monster Worldwide, the Internet jobs company, recently reported that its monthly employment index for April experienced the sharpest gain in more than a year.

In addition, recent figures on jobs, GDP, business confidence, and consumer spending all tell a consistent story indicating that, while the economy weakened abruptly last fall, there has not been continued deterioration. It seems increasingly probable that the US will skirt a recession this year.

New job orders continue to arrive from all sectors, with consumer packaged goods and pharmaceutical companies leading the way. Energy, telecommunication, and consulting firms are all looking to hire; and we are seeing activity from advertising agencies, insurance companies and retailers, as well – areas we assumed would contract during a soft market. Even the beleaguered credit industry is showing signs of a return to staffing during this second quarter.

This continued hiring seems a testament to the constant level of demand for good talent. While other areas may be feeling the effects of the economy more drastically, our clients are still in need of employees with strong analytic aptitude, and the ability to lead the way with data-driven business decisions. The technical and strategic talents of those in the marketing analytics industry are highly desired by today’s companies, and this helps to shield quantitative professionals from the effects of the softening market.

To understand recent and upcoming conditions, it may be helpful to examine a few substantial differences between the current market softness and the recessionary period of 2001-03. Economists frequently describe modern recessions as being “U” shaped, rather the “V” shape of past recessions. Prior to 2001, recessions tended to be sharper, with a sudden spike in layoffs and unemployment rates. The trough was deep, but short lived and the rebound was quick. During the 2001-03 period, the falloff was not nearly as sharp and the bottom not nearly as deep, but the turnaround was slower, with many months of sluggish growth.

While some believe we may be in the beginning stages of this new kind of economic cycle, many indicators suggest otherwise. During 13 of the 24 months between May ‘01 and May ‘03, monthly job losses averaged between 150,000 and 300,000. In contrast, the job losses reported this year are much less dramatic, at 80,000 per month for January through March, and just 20,000 in April. It is also worth noting that unemployment peaked in June 2003 at 6.3% during the earlier contraction period, whereas the current rate is hovering at about 5.0%.

I am happy to say that the impact of the reported soft market on the analytical community seems likely to be minor. We have not heard of any substantial layoffs and salary offers remain aggressive. Our candidates continue to enjoy a steady stream of new opportunities, and filling these highly specialized positions is a persistent challenge for many companies.

These are the challenges we welcome. We are here to help you understand and prepare for fluctuating market conditions. Let us know of any way in which we might be able to be of service.

Best regards,

Linda Burtch
Burtch Works
Email: lburtch@burtchworks.com
Don’t Forget to Connect to me on LinkedIn and become a Facebook fan!

Quantitative Trends: 2008

It's that time of year again! As 2008 is well underway, Linda has put together her much anticipated "state of the union address" sharing her thoughts on the outlook for this year's quantitative job market. You'll find that below.

As always, we welcome your input and observations, so feel free to post your opinions!

TRENDS 2008

Don’t Panic Over Recession Forecasts

In light of the dire predictions filling today’s economic and political news, I want to share some of my expectations for the quantitative job market going in 2008. Many of the sobering employment statistics released February 1 by the US Labor Department do not reflect our industry’s current outlook. Though the economy as a whole lost 17,000 jobs in January (the first monthly decline in four years), and the number of long-term unemployed (+6 months) is up about 21% from a year ago, I am happy to report that job security for the quantitative professional is high, with continued strong demand and frustratingly short supply.

Quantitative Professionals are Secure …

Recruiters here have not seen any significant signs of slowdown in our job markets. To date, there have been few layoffs in the quantitative professions, and recruiting and hiring remain a priority for many departments. Talented professionals are still in short supply, continuing to make it difficult to fill open positions even in this changing economic climate, and also making quantitative specialists less vulnerable during layoffs.

… with Some Exceptions

The consumer credit groups are a bit of an exception to the general level of security afforded the rest of the quantitative industry. The mortgage crisis has resulted in some cutbacks at lending institutions, banks and real estate companies, especially those heavily involved in the subprime market. For those who remain, bonuses have been uneven.

In addition, corporate hiring managers do seem less interested in entry-level statisticians at this time, believing (or maybe just hoping) they will be able to take advantage of the softening market to add experienced, talented staffers. I continue to encourage our clients to be open to considering junior or entry-level statisticians, as other industries are still competing for more experienced hires. By accommodating the learning curve of entry-level statisticians, companies may be cultivating a unique talent base that will garner large returns on their investments as the need for industry-specific quantitative experience continues to grow unchecked.

Industry Crossover Presents New Opportunities

Hiring managers across the board are realizing they might find the employees they need among the ailing credit industry’s talented quantitative professionals. Candidates with bank and credit experience offer knowledge of sophisticated statistical techniques, as well as expertise in managing large and often messy data sets. In the past, it has been a challenge for other industries to compete with the higher compensation levels and generous benefit packages of the big banks. As the credit industry pulls back, candidates are looking outside that arena with new eyes, suddenly able to appreciate the career advantages offered by knowledge diversification.

Consulting Firms Continue Healthy Growth

As many corporations are realizing the limitations of outsourcing their analytics overseas, they have turned to domestic consulting resources to handle their quantitative needs. This has lead to

a visibly growing demand for quantitative professionals in consulting environments - from very large global concerns to small boutique shops.

Relocation Presents Continuing Challenges

For 18 months, the soft housing market has had a major impact on the ability of candidates who own homes to relocate. A few companies are able to provide a safety net for homeowners through a buy-back policy, reducing the stress involved for families contemplating a move. Other companies have agreed to extend temporary housing allowances (in the past often limited to three months) to accommodate the longer time required to sell a home.

Salaries Remain Firm

In another sign that our industry is riding out the recession news, the recent market pullback has not reduced the salary offers our quantitative candidates are receiving. Though bonuses will be disappointing for many this February and March, others will see on- or above-target payouts. The frequency of sign-on bonuses is also holding steady at about 35% of the offers our candidates receive.

Let Us Help You Navigate the Shifting Economic Terrain

Though negative economic reports continue to make the daily news, the real news for our industry is much brighter. Quantitative professionals are still enjoying lucrative careers, with new opportunities for growth and diversification rising from both traditional and unexpected sources. Smart hiring, creative thinking and careful career management will help ensure a positive outlook for quantitative professionals. I will continue to monitor the market closely for changes and trends, and look forward to analyzing the news to help you stay abreast of developments affecting your career.

Let me know if you have any questions or comments, as well as how we can help you plan for this year and the years to come.

Best regards,

Linda Burtch
Burtch Works
Email: lburtch@burtchworks.com
Don’t Forget to Connect to me on LinkedIn and become a Facebook fan!

Times, They Are A-Changin'

With the closing of another year rapidly approaching, it's always fun to take a moment to consider how quickly things can change in just a short period. Time elapses, people grow, technology develops... and with the continuous change come continuous challenges- necessary adaptations to meet the newly developed demands of the ever-evolving world around us.

Statistics, it seems, faces those challenges as well. As more people become more mobile (thanks to technology) and are relying less on traditional land based phone lines, it is becoming much more difficult to get an accurate sampling of household makeup. The New York Times recently published an article on this subject, and we thought you might find it interesting. Check it out at the link below:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/07/us/07polling.html?ex=1354683600&en=9ed635832ad9a821&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss

Happy Holidays!

Linda Burtch
Burtch Works
Email: lburtch@burtchworks.com
Don’t Forget to Connect to me on LinkedIn and become a Facebook fan!

One Thing to Consider...

With the current market presenting a wealth of opportunities, many of you may find yourselves approaching the next chapter in your career; moving into a new role, taking on a new set of responsibilities, and building new bridges. As important as it is to look forward with each new step, a recent article in the Wall Street Journal declares that it is essential not to neglect the importance of that which you leave behind.

According to journalist Joann S. Lublin, a positive exit from a current employer is key when taking that next step. With 25% of the country’s executives currently contemplating leaving their job, ensuring your last interactions are free from negativity can mean the difference between an angry, resentful departure and one that leaves valuable relationships intact.

Both Linda and myself have seen the importance of this time and again, and agree completely. So, before you burn any bridges, take a moment to read this article and consider the impression you’re leaving behind…

http://go.speeple.com/news-D1raHKPeJn4

Linda Burtch
Burtch Works
Email: lburtch@burtchworks.com
Don’t Forget to Connect to me on LinkedIn and become a Facebook fan!

Title Inflation: VP of Blogging?

One thing that we know is true: the key to happiness when taking on a new role is in your personal enjoyment of the job itself- not its title. However, a snappy title is often one of the first things we judge. So, how effective is this in a time when "title inflation" is more common than ever?

In this ever-changing market structure, we see the importance for corporations to continue to reinvent themselves so as to demand a quicker response to the constant evolution. Over the years, what once was a full hierarchy has been tightened up; "reducing headcount= more efficient". With this flattening out of the corporate ladder, the opportunity for growth has become more difficult, leaving employers with fewer ways to denote success and promotion. As a result, an increase in title rather than function has become common practice, and we're seeing the trend pass through all industries. What is the cause of this? What does it signify to those looking to work their way to the top? The article below offers some insight into this.

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1748

Linda Burtch
Burtch Works
Email: lburtch@burtchworks.com
Don’t Forget to Connect to me on LinkedIn and become a Facebook fan!

Read Any Good Books Lately?

As a testament to the growing importance analytics play in the decision making processes of today’s business market, the Wall Street Journal recently highlighted a publication written on the subject. With the staggering advancements and incredible possibilities that exist within the world of “number crunching”, Competing on Analytics by Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris aims to give insight into the analytics-driven success behind the marketing efforts of today’s major companies. Case studies of organizations such as NetFlix and Harrah’s Casino in Las Vegas delve into the secrets of the “numbers never lie” approach, and shine a light on the most important factor in the whole analytical equation- the necessity for good talent.

So, for those of you looking for a good book to pick up… take a look at the full article below.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117685837776773418.html?mod=most_viewed_leisure24